pending-lightning-free-agent-could-be-poised-for-a-breakout-season

Author: Coach Rox

Posted on: July 27, 2026

Raw Charge

The 2026 NHL Free Agent Season hasn’t even ended yet. Heck, we’re not even a full month into it yet, but that’s not going to stop us from looking ahead to the 2027 NHL Free Agent Season. A lot of focus has been on Nikita Kucherov, which is understandable considering he can lay a legitimate claim to being the best player in the league. Unfortunately, he isn’t the only Tampa Bay Lightning player that can test unrestricted free agency next season. Jonas Johansson, Zemgus Girgensons, Charle-Edouard D’Astous and Pontus Holmberg are all in the final seasons of their current deal and eligible for an extension.

<p>Of those names, Johansson and Girgensons are the most likely not to see a new deal from Julien BriseBois before next summer. In fact, the likelihood of Johansson making it to October 1 in a Lightning uniform are pretty slim. For D’Astous and Holmberg, though, it’s a different story. Both are young enough that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mr. BriseBois try and lock them to multi-year deals prior to July 1 as they have each earned spots on the roster with their play last season.</p>

<p>We’ll get to D’Astous (who has already signed one extension in his brief Lightning career) in a future post, but today’s focus is on Pontus Holmberg, the 27-year-old forward that signed a two-year, $1.55 million AAV contract with the Lightning last summer after the Toronto Maple Leafs failed to tender him a contract as a restricted free agent. In 70 games last season, Holmberg put up a career-best 11 goals and 31 points. A broken collarbone ended his season prematurely and prevented him from helping the Lightning in the post-season.</p>

<p>He had a pretty even season in terms of point production, recording three or more points in every month except November and April, two months where he missed games due to injuries. December was his big goal-scoring month as he potted five of his eleven goals over a nine-game stretch as the entire team caught fire prior to Christmas. As nice as the offense was, it was his ability to move from his natural center position and join Yanni Gourde and Zemgus Girgensons on the third line that helped the Lightning take off.</p>

<p>While the Lightning were outscored with the trio on the ice at 5v5 (20-18) they actually dominated play the majority of the time they were out there. In the 618 minutes they were together over the course of 63 games, they produced an expected goals edge of 55.65% while posting a 60.85% advantage in high-danger chances. Their expected goals against per 60 of 2.22 was second only to the 1.96 xGA/60 put up by the trio of Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brayden Point for forward units that played at least 100 minutes together last season. </p>

<p>As the season evolved, Girgensons, Gourde, and Holmberg became a bit of a security blanket for Coach Jon Cooper. He would throw them out there to start periods and after goals to either gain momentum back or keep things rolling. Something they often did by simply hounding the puck in the offensive zone. The 129 high-danger chances the Lightning generated while they were on the ice was the most from any offensive trio. Had they been able to convert their shots at a higher rate than the 7% they posted, they would have been on the right side of that goals scored column.</p>

<p>Holmberg played a huge role in the line’s success. His ability to carry and shield the puck from opponents was one of his biggest assets (and also earned him the “<a href="https://x.com/TBLightning/status/1994512686588334396?s=20">Backpack</a>” nickname from Yanni Gourde). His numbers overall were a bit indicative of the line as a whole. The offensive underperformed a bit, but the defense was top shelf. </p>

<p>Those are solid numbers defensively, and Holmberg was honored with a single fourth-place Selke vote. Hey, it’s not nothing! </p>

<p>Going into the 2026-27 season, we know that the hard work, the forechecking, and the zone entries will be there. Could we see a bump in his offensive game? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. Holmberg grew more comfortable in the Lightning’s system as the season went on, and while the goal scoring may have dried up a bit after January (he had three goals over his last 29 games) he was still generating chances. Over that 29-game drought he still posted a 5.81 ixG at 5v5, the fourth best number on the team during that stretch. His 58 individual scoring chances was tied for third over that time. The kid was trying, but just a little snake-bit at the net.</p>

<p>If he keeps generating chances like that next season, and stays healthy, he could be a nice depth scoring option for the Lightning and give that third line a nice boost. Could he get to the 15-20 goal mark? It’s not impossible, right? We’ll find out early in the season how the bottom-six looks. We can assume that early on, Coach Cooper will lean on the combinations that worked defensively last year, but things do change, and maybe Holmberg finds himself paired up with Dominic James or Ilya Mikheyev and they naturally generate a little more offense. </p>

<p>The Lightning are already in a position where they are hoping that Victor Hedman and Brayden Point can bounce back offensively from last season. If that happens, great, but if a player like Holmberg can go from 11 goals to 17 or 18, that’s a nice little boost further down the line-up. Holmberg has shown some offensive skill in small flashes, and with the right breaks, it wouldn’t take much for him to make that a more consistent part of his game. </p>

<p>For a player entering a contract year, that would be a nice little boost to the bank account. Right now, AFP Analytics is projecting his next deal to be a two-year contract with an AAV of $2.568 million. Which would be a nice deal for the Lightning, especially if Holmberg takes the next step in his offensive game. That being said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reel in a little bit more. In looking at some similar players to Holmberg that are under contract, we noticed that he shares a lot of similarities as Jason Dickinson.</p>

<p>Both are strong defensive depth forwards that are slightly below league average when it comes to scoring. After splitting time with Chicago and Edmonton last season, Dickinson signed a five-year deal worth $4 million a season to stay with the Oilers. That might be a bit high for Holmberg, who is a few years younger. It is worth noting that in his age 28 season (2023-24) Dickinson jumped from 9 goals the previous year to 22 the next. He hasn’t matched that high since, but it shows that a player in the right role can see a dramatic increase in scoring. </p>

<p>Since he is a bit older, we took a look at how they compared over similar ages. The numbers a fairly similar, with a slight edge to Holmberg. </p>

<div class="sr_share_wrap" style="overflow:auto"> <table class="sr_share" id="" data-soc-sum-params="null" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-size:.83em; border: 1px sold #aaa; overflow:auto;"> <caption>Jason Dickinson (2021-2022) vs. Pontus Holmberg (2025-2026): Skater Totals Table</caption> <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup> <thead> <tr> <th colspan="6" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;"></th> <th colspan="3" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Scoring</th> <th style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;"></th> <th style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;"></th> <th colspan="4" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Goals</th> <th colspan="3" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Assists</th> <th colspan="2" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Shots</th> <th colspan="2" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Ice Time</th> </tr> <tr> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Rk</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Player</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">Age</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">From</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">To</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">GP</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">G</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">A</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">PTS</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">+/-</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">PIM</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">EVG</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">PP</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SH</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">GWG</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">EV</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">PP</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SH</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SOG</th> <th scope="col" data-filter="1" data-name="" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">SPCT</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">TOI</th> <th scope="col" style="background-color: #ddd; border: 1px solid #aaa; padding: 2px;">ATOI</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody><tr> <th scope="row" csk="1" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1</th> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; "><a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/dickija01.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Jason Dickinson</a></td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">25-26</td> <td csk="2021" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2020-21</td> <td csk="2022" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2021-22</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">113</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">12</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">14</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">26</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">-3</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">37</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">12</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">0</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">0</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">13</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">0</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">132</td> <td csk="0.0909" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">9.1</td> <td csk="1634.5000" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1634:30</td> <td csk="867.8761" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">14:28</td> </tr> <tr> <th scope="row" csk="2" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2</th> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; "><a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/holmbpo01.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Pontus Holmberg</a></td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">25-26</td> <td csk="2025" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2024-25</td> <td csk="2026" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2025-26</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">138</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">18</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">23</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">41</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">5</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">58</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">17</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">0</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">2</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">22</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">0</td> <td style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">158</td> <td csk="0.1139" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">11.4</td> <td csk="1795.4500" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">1795:27</td> <td csk="780.6304" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; ">13:01</td> </tr> </tbody> </table><div id="credit_stats_player_comp_rs" style="font-size: 0.83em;" class="sr_share">Provided by <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.html?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Stathead</a>: <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/hockey/versus-finder.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Found with Stathead. See Full Results.</a><br>Generated 7/27/2026.</div>

<p>At 26, Dickinson signed a three-year deal with the Vancouver Canucks that had an AAV of $2.65 million, or 3.25% of the salary cap at that time. Now that seems in line with what Holmberg may sign, especially if he agrees to an extension prior to July 1. With the cap expected to rise to $113,500,000 next season, an AAV of $3.689 million would be 3.25% of the cap. We could see Holmberg signing a three-year deal in that range to stay in Tampa.</p>

<p>That would fit into the Lightning’s plans, even with whatever mega-deal Kucherov ends up signing and give Mr. BriseBois something that he really values – cost certainty – for a few seasons. It would also give the Lightning a really solid bottom-six forward who can play on the wing or at center, who at worst, is a shut-down type of defensive player, and at his ceiling could be a 35 to 40 point player who plays excellent defense. </p>

<p>Re-signing Pontus Holmberg prior to July 1, 2027 isn’t as high up the priority list as signing Nikita Kucherov, but it also wouldn’t be a bad idea either. </p></p>: <p class="card-text"><a href='https://www.rawcharge.com/pending-lightning-free-agent-could-be-poised-for-a-breakout-season-tampa-bay-pontus-holmberg/' class="btn btn-secondary">Go to website</a></p>

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