Raw Charge
Summary
Can you believe it? The regular season is here (well for some teams). That means training camp is officially over, and everything counts for the next few months. The Tampa Bay Lightning had a good, but not perfect preseason as they went 2-1-1 in their four games against the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers. There are some things that definitely still need work (power play) and we there is still probably some shuffling to do among the defensive pairings and lines, but for the most part we have an idea of what the 2026-27 Lightning will look like. Now, before we get rolling too far, let’s acknowledge the Bear #89 aka Backpack -sized issue in the room. The sample size for the preseason, especially this season, is nowhere near long enough to determine anything for certain. With just four games overall, and most regulars appearing in just two of those, we are only getting the merest of hints of what is to come. Making things even more uncertain was the way the match-ups played out. When the Lightning had their regulars in, they were mostly going against AHLers and prospects. On the flipside, when the Lightning went with their “B” roster, they were facing some NHL regulars, at least against Nashville. The stats are what they are, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few things we can’t draw out of the work put in over the last couple of weeks. In looking at training camp as a whole, there are a few aspects that are trending in a positive direction that could make for a good start for the Lightning as their season gets underway against the New York Rangers. Face-Offs The 2025-26 Tampa Bay Lightning finished the season winning just 47.4% of their draws on the ice. That ranked a disappointing 28th in the league overall. In the playoffs, they were dead last among the sixteen teams at 44.4%. Now, face-offs aren’t a be-all, end-all stat that determines success or failure in the sport of hockey. After all, the Ottawa Senators had the best winning percentage in the playoffs at 58.5% and that didn’t prevent them from being swept in the first round. Meanwhile your Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes were perfectly dead even at 50% (which was also good for eighth out of sixteen teams, so there were the epitome of Even-Steven on draws). However, the ability to win a draw when they really needed it eluded the Lightning for much of the season, and was a bane in their match-up against the Canadiens. Who knows, if they had won an extra offensive draw or two at some point in that series (they only won 42.7% of their OZ face-offs), perhaps they could have found another goal at a pivotal moment, and the outcome would have been different. Making things even more interesting, the two leading face-off men from last season are not with the team right now. Nick Paul, who won 53.9% of his draws is in Toronto while Dominic James, and his 50.4% success rate, is recovering from injury. No one else of significance won more than half of their draws last year. Anthony Cirelli, who took the most with 1,075, was at 48.2% while Brayden Point was at 45.8% on his 653 opportunities. Yet, despite those foreboding numbers, in the preseason, the Lightning were very, very good at winning face-offs. According to Natural Stat Trick, the four players who will probably be taking most of the draws to start the season were all above water: Brayden Point – 21/30 = 70.00% Anthony Cirelli – 13/21 = 57.45% Zemgus Girgensons – 12/23 = 52.17% Jansen Harkins – 14/22 = 63.64% Again, we cannot stress enough that preseason games don’t feature the intensity of the regular season, and a lot of those wins came against players that are likely to be suiting up in the AHL to start the year. Still, if the numbers are going to lean one way, don’t you want them to go in a positive direction? And compared to last preseason, the numbers are much better. Cirelli won about 58% of his face-offs in the 2025 preseason, but Point was at 38% while Girgensons was at 50%. So, under similar circumstances, there was improvement. Was it part of the reason Luke Glendening was in camp? Possibly. It could also be a sign that Point is healthier than he was last year. No matter what the factors are, an increased performance in the dot should have a positive effect for the Lightning, especially in the offensive zone. Winning draws in the opponent’s end allows the Lightning to get into their system quicker and leads to longer zone time. With the talent they have, that means more chances and more goals. Penalty Kill While the power play wasn’t operating at full capacity, scoring just once, the penalty kill was in fine form, as it settled every chance against with a positive outcome. Sam O’Reilly might have had the most overall shorthanded time with 7:45, but the regular penalty killers did well in their time on the ice as well. The Bolts added some shorthanded speed and prowess in Ilya Mikheyev, and the former Chicago forward showed that he will be a welcome addition on the unit. It will be interesting to see who Coach Jon Cooper teams him up with during the regular season as he did have most of his preseason ice time with O’Reilly. Whatever the combination is (maybe Harkins), adding another speedy duo to go along with Cirelli and Brandon Hagel gives the Lightning excellent penalty-killing depth. Girgensons and Pontus Holmberg were another combination that showed well in their shortened penalty-killing time together (2:49) over the last two weeks. That duo didn’t allow a shot against while they were on the ice, which isn’t too shabby. The return of a healthy Victor Hedman (who played 4:46 of short-handed time in his two outings), should help take some of the pressure off of Ryan McDonagh. The Bolts were third last year in penalty killing as 82.6% of the chances against them were unsuccessful. There is a chance that, with Mikheyev’s 9 career short-handed tallies, the unit could not only be better at killing off penalties, but be a little more dangerous offensively despite being down a skater. Bottom Six Play With Mikheyev starting the season on the top line and Jake Guentzel sliding into the open spot next to Cirelli and Hagel, the real question marks on the roster were among the players competing for a role on the bottom-six to replace the injured Yanni Gourde and Dominic James. And for the most part, some of the best performances in camp came from that group. In a fair and just world where things like experience, waiver status, and age didn’t matter, Sam O’Reilly probably makes this team as third-line center. That’s how good his training camp was. However, those things do matter, and last year’s triple-MVP for Kitchener will start his pro career in Syracuse. That’s not a bad thing as he will get plenty of playing time to adjust to the next level of hockey. Meanwhile, it looks like the player that took the biggest advantage of the opportunity presented by the injuries to Gourde and James was Jansen Harkins. We had the veteran pegged to start the season in Syracuse and provide the organization with an experienced forward who has speed and the ability to win face-offs. Instead, it looked like he’ll be the fourth-line center when the puck drops in Madison Square Garden. In their first practice after the roster was finalized, Harkins centered Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves, a line that could be a nice blend of speed, size, and offense. Geekie was the other big winner in training camp as the big forward led the team shots on goal (9) and shot attempts (15) while chipping in two goals and adding an assist. He looked a lot more assertive on the ice than he has in past training camps while demonstrating a noticeable improvement in his skating. Geekie isn’t going to get confused with Point in terms of moving down the ice, but he is getting his movement on the ice to the point where it is not a hinderance at the NHL level. Pairing that with his puck-handling skills and shot, and he could be set to make an impact this year. Joining Geekie at the top of the points column was Jeffrey Viel, who also posted two goals and an assist, albeit in just two games. While the winner of the most interesting contract signed in Tampa this offseason isn’t likely to finish the regular season as a goal-a-game guy, it’s a continued indication that the 29-year-old is unlocking the offensive part of his game. He did have a career-high 10 points (3 goals, 7 assists) in just 35 games for the Ducks following his trade from Boston last year, and followed that up with 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in 12 post-season games for Anaheim. For now, it looks like he’ll be part of a third line with Girgensons and Holmberg to start the season. Coach Cooper doesn’t love assigning his lines numbers (like first line, second line, etc.) and often refers to them by the center (aka Cirelli line, Gourde line), but there is little doubt that Point’s line and Cirelli’s line will get the bulk of the 5v5 playing time. Those six skaters should provide much of the offense considering the talent that will be on the ice, but if they can squeeze some goals out from the other six forwards when they are on the ice, it will go a long way to vaulting the Lightning to the top of the division and allowing them to run-and-gun with the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Everything resets on Thursday for the Lightning, and what has happened in training camp will be quickly forgotten, after all the Bolts 5-1-0 preseason in 2025-26 didn’t matter much once the games started counting, but that doesn’t mean they can’t lean on some of the things that they were successful at over the last couple of weeks. Outside of the Rangers, who they play twice in their first five games, they also have the Capitals, Flyers, Wild, and Islanders. They also have a tough first road trip that will take them to Vegas, Colorado, and Utah. If the Bolts can keep winning face-offs, killing penalties, and getting production from the bottom-six, it will help them avoid a slow start against some tough competition to start the season.