Raw Charge
Summary
Time: 8:00 PM EST Location: Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul, Minnesota TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, Wild+, MINNHL, ESPN+, 102.5 The Bone Odds: Lightning -135 Know the Opponents: Hockey Wilderness Season Series: Lightning 1, Wild 0 ( 3-2 Win in Tampa ) There aren’t many games on the schedule where one would look at it and immediately pencil the Tampa Bay Lightning in for a loss. Contract drama aside, they are one of the best regular-season teams in the league, and should have a shot at winning every one of their 84 hockey games this season. However, if there was any game on the schedule that would have the odds stacked against them, it would be tonight’s game. Let’s look at some history. The Lightning are 3-14-0-2 all time in what is now called the Grand Casino Arena. That includes an 0-8-2 stretch from 2011 to 2024. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 1-4-2 in Minnesota in his career, yet is one of three goalies in franchise history to beat the Wild at their home (Dwayne Roloson and Marc Denis are the others). Sure, that is the past, but the present doesn’t provide much positivity either. Minnesota is 5-0-1 on home ice and averaging 2.75 GF/60 on home ice. That is respectable (14th in the league), but has been more than enough offense considering they are only allowing 1.45 GA/60 in their comfortable confines. That is second in the league (Boston has been a fortress at 1.08 GA/60). It’s been tough to get shots off (22.63/60) scoring chances (23.05/60), or high-danger chances (8.93/60) against them, and when a team does, the duo of Jesper Wallstedt and Calvin Pickard have posted a .936 SV%. All of that is at 5v5, but considering they have a 33.3% success rate on the power play and have killed off 88.2% of their short-handed opportunities, it’s not like they’re conceding much on special teams. Quinn Hughes has been a big part of their power play success as he has 6 points (1 goal, 5 assists) on home ice with the extra skater. Kirill Kaprizov is leading the way with three goals, but Maxim Shabanov is right behind him with two goals and four points. A free-agent signee in the summer, Shabanov has filled the scoring depth hole left by Mats Zuccarello absconding to L.A. in free agency. The 26-year-old has 11 points (6 goals, 5 assists) overall in his 17 games with the Wild. Meanwhile, on the road, the Lightning have been struggling to keep pucks out of the net. Only the Vancouver Canucks and Pittsburgh Penguins are giving up more 5v5 goals on the road than the Lightning’s 3.54/60. Teams are running amok in the Bolts’ zone, amassing 28.47 scoring chances per 60 with 12.09 of them being of the Grade-A variety. That’s part of the reason Vasilevskiy and Dennis Hildeby have posted a .866 SV% at 5v5 on the road, the second-worst of any goaltending tandem in the league. A power play sputtering along at 13% and a 76.2% penalty kill doesn’t really help matters. It’s no wonder they are 2-3-2 on the season away from Benchmark Arena. The good news is that they get four games in a row to improve those numbers. The bad news is that Winnipeg has been almost as inhospitable as St. Paul, while Buffalo always plays them tough, and Columbus is where weird things always happen. If nothing else, it should be an interesting stretch of four games. They are catching the Wild on the second night of a back-to-back as Wallstedt stopped 23 shots in a 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks. Pickard is 1-1-0 on the season with a .833 SV% and 3.50 GAA, but both of those starts came on the road. If the Lightning want to pull off a victory tonight, they’re going to have to get in Pickard’s face. Traffic in front of the net and jamming away at rebounds is going to be the best path to a win. The Wild’s defense is too good at shutting down passing lanes for pretty back-door passes to work. It’s going to be a grind against a really good team tonight. Forwards: Jake Guentzel Brayden Point Nikita Kucherov Brandon Hagel Anthony Cirelli Gage Goncalves Pontus Holmberg Zemgus Girgensons Ilya Mikheyev Jeff Viel Conor Geekie Defense: J.J. Moser Max Crozier Ryan McDonagh Erik Cernak Victor Hedman John Carlson Charle-Edouard D’Astous Goaltenders: Andrei Vasilevskiy Dennis Hildeby Minnesota Wild Forwards: Kirill Kaprizov Joel Eriksson Ek Matt Boldy Blake Coleman Michael McCarron Bobby Brink Maxim Shabanov Danila Yurov Yakov Trenin Nico Sturm Ryan Hartman Tyler Pitlik Defense: Quinn Hughes Jonas Brodin Olli Maatta Zach Bogosian Matt Kiersted David Spacek Goaltenders: Calvin Pickard Jesper Wallstedt