Raw Charge
Summary
Injuries limited Victor Hedman’s production when he was on the ice during the 2025-26 season. A season after finishing fifth in the Norris Trophy voting, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s captain experienced the worst season of his career, playing in 33 games and producing just 17 points (1 goal, 16 assists). Not only was he struggling with physical injuries, Hedman wasn’t in the place he needed to be mentally, and he took time away from the game to deal with his mental health. After a full summer off, the 35-year-old veteran of over 1150 games was refreshed and much lighter as he reported to camp at a slim 229 pounds, roughly 16 pounds lighter than he was in 2025-26. One of the big questions heading into the season concerned how Coach Jon Cooper would use the future all-star considering the off-season acquisitions (John Carlson), J.J. Moser’s ascension to top-pairing defender, and the surprise performance of Charle-Edouard D’Astous. Would Hedman step right back onto the top pair or would he find himself as part of the third-pairing since the chances of Coach Cooper splitting up Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak were almost nil. Six games into the season, it appears, at least for now, that the answer is the second option. Hedman has averaged 10:41 of ice time at 5v5, with Emil Lilleberg as the only defenseman to average fewer minutes a night (and Lilleberg’s lone game had him leaving early after suffering a minor injury during a fight). Hedman has added another 1:56 of ice time short-handed, which is third among penalty-killing defensemen while being on the ice for two goals against. With the Lightning going with an 11/7 rotation, Hedman has been the seventh defenseman on most nights, with his playing time spread out among several other blueliners. He’s spent the most time with Cernak (26:09), Max Crozier (17:04), and D’Astous (13:09). While Hedman has been on the ice the Lightning are above water in terms of possession as they’ve posted a 53.03% edge in shot attempts, with advantages in expected goals (59.91%), scoring chances (59.74%), and high-danger chances (62.16%). A further look into the numbers show that there is just way more action on the ice in both the offensive and defensive zones when Heddy is skating around. Expected Goals For/60 Expected Goals Against/60 With Hedman 3.30 2.49 Without Hedman 2.83 1.79 Stats via Hockey Viz. All four of those numbers are better than the league averages, but the emerging trend seems to be that the Bolts offense is better when he’s on the ice, but they also give up a few more chances. So, if you like offense or betting the over totals on goals scored, Victor Hedman is your guy. Since we’re still fairly early in the season, the numbers can be skewed by one or two games in either direction, and we tend to rely a little more on the eye test. In our opinion, he’s looked a little slower on the ice, but he’s been better this year than last at some of the things that make him a good offensive player, namely his ability to pass out of the defensive zone (especially stretch passes) and he’s been getting his shot on net. As for his speed, the early returns on the NHL Edge site seem to confirm that he’s a bit slower on the ice. According to the league, his max speed this season has been 21.08 MPH down from the 22.15 MPH he posted last year. He’s also averaging fewer bursts in the 18-20 MPH zone. So far he’s at about 2.83 18-20 MPH bursts per game this year as opposed to the 3.75 in 2025-26. It will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Will his skating legs come back as he gets more comfortable after not playing competitive hockey for six months, or is this just the effect of a long career and he’ll have to adjust to being a more stationary defenseman? For the most part, his lack of foot speed is most noticeable when he turns the puck over in the offensive zone. For the past few seasons, he just hasn’t shown the ability to chase down forwards when that happens. With an uptick in giveaways overall, that is worrisome. MoneyPuck has him with 5 giveaways on the season with three of them coming in the offensive or neutral zone. If that continues to be a trend, it will be an issue moving forward. While his shot attempts (7.49/60) and overall shots on goal (3.74/60) are way down from his career numbers, he has been doing an excellent job of getting the puck on net. Throughout his career, he’s missed the net on roughly 34.3% of his unblocked shots at 5v5. This year, four of his five unblocked shots have found the goaltender. That’s a solid trend that will help the offense if he starts letting it go more. If the Bolts do go to a 12/6 rotation, and Hedman stays in the line-up, who should he partner with? A quick look at his with/without numbers can provide a few clues. First off, if we take this chart at face value, Victor Hedman and Gage Goncalves probably shouldn’t ever be in the same arena, let alone on the ice at the same time. Ignoring the performance of the forwards, the numbers seem to indicate that Crozier and Cernak have been Hedman’s best partners on the ice so far. The offensive gains with both pairings are enough to offset the decreases in expected goals against. Meanwhile, they should probably shy away from having him out there with D’Astous. The face that the bulk of the players are on the “good” side of the red line indicates that Hedman is still bringing positive play when he’s on the ice. Perhaps the most noticeable difference in his game, has been the complete lack of playing time on the power play. The franchise leader among defensemen in power play goals (35) and assists (256) has a grand total of 30 seconds of 5v4 power play time this season. John Carlson has been on the first unit while D’Astous has quarterbacked the second unit. Could that change if the Lightning start tinkering with the line-up after their league worst 2-for-24 start? Possibly, but when the lines were altered for a practice last week, it was J.J. Moser running the second unit after D’Astous jumped up with Nikita Kucherov and the boys. We won’t presume to know what the plan for Hedman is moving forward, but we’re sure he’s been made aware of it from the coaching staff. History has shown that Coach Cooper has always been open with his players in terms of his expectations for them. So we can assume there is a plan in place and the Bolts are sticking to it. Over all the defensive group has been playing pretty well, but competition for playing time is going to only increase as players get healthy. They’ve been able to roll with 11/7 mainly because of the injuries to Yanni Gourde and Dominic James. James should be back soon and it might behoove the team to get him back in the line-up and keep Jeff Viel on the ice as well. Things will get really crowded once Gourde is back in early December. Barring any other injuries, the coaching staff will have to make some hard decisions. So far, we would say it’s been a mixed return for The Big Swede. He’s not quite at the Norris-level we’ve associated with him for almost a decade, but his skill hasn’t completely gone away either. Hedman still provides enough offense, even in limited playing time, to justify his spot in the line-up. There is room for improvement, and there is a chance it happens as he continues to build back from his long layoff.